{
  "scenario_name": "base_case",
  "base_year": 2024,
  "forecast_end_year": 2035,
  "demand": {
    "global_refined_demand_kt": 27353.0,
    "regions": {
      "China": {
        "world_bank_code": "CHN",
        "share": 0.58,
        "transition_growth_bonus": 0.0025,
        "property_downturn_drag": -0.015,
        "property_downturn_start_year": 2025,
        "property_downturn_end_year": 2030,
        "substitution_drag": -0.003
      },
      "United States": {
        "world_bank_code": "USA",
        "share": 0.07,
        "transition_growth_bonus": 0.002,
        "substitution_drag": -0.0035
      },
      "European Union": {
        "world_bank_code": "EUU",
        "share": 0.12,
        "transition_growth_bonus": 0.002,
        "substitution_drag": -0.0035
      },
      "Rest of World": {
        "world_bank_code": "ROW",
        "share": 0.23,
        "transition_growth_bonus": 0.0015,
        "substitution_drag": -0.002
      }
    },
    "driver_weights": {
      "industry_value_added": 0.55,
      "gdp_per_capita": 0.30,
      "population": 0.15
    },
    "macro_lookback_years": 10,
    "growth_floor": -0.015,
    "growth_cap": 0.055,
    "scenario_growth_shock": 0.0
  },
  "supply": {
    "mine_production_kt": 22990.0,
    "refinery_production_kt": 27486.0,
    "primary_refined_share": 0.829,
    "recent_growth_floor": -0.01,
    "recent_growth_cap": 0.03,
    "project_pipeline_growth": 0.006,
    "disruption_loss": 0.003,
    "project_risk_discount_factor": 0.7,
    "rest_of_world_growth": 0.008,
    "maintenance_loss_multiplier": 0.65,
    "concentrate_processing_capacity_growth": 0.02,
    "smelter_constraint_capture_rate": 0.4,
    "blending_constraint_pct": 0.0015
  },
  "secondary_supply": {
    "collection_growth": 0.004,
    "demand_link": 0.55,
    "growth_floor": -0.02,
    "growth_cap": 0.06
  }
}